But they pretend they do. It’s the same in all sectors, not just business. No one can tell the future. No one can tell you what will happen tomorrow, other than what they’ve planned to do. What they don’t know is what the outcome of any of that will be. There are always unintended consequences because everything is so complex. That’s the thinking behind the Butterfly Effect. The phrase comes from work by meteorologist Edward Lorenz in the 1960s–70s. He showed that tiny differences in the initial numbers in his weather models produced wildly different forecasts, making long‑term weather prediction fundamentally limited. The butterfly image is just a metaphor for those tiny initial differences. That means that anyone who claims to ‘know’ what will happen in the future either doesn’t understand the data, or is trying to push an agenda. It is always in your best interests to ask one or both of two questions. 1/ What if they’re wrong? 2/ How do they know that? I find the first one is the most useful. It challenges me to do some research. Not just ask an AI tool, although that can be part of the research. Look for opposing ideas, facts, and conclusions. Many things are not what they seem to be on the surface, but you’ll have to dig and think. Sorry about that. Regards, |
