But they pretend they do.
It’s the same in all sectors, not just business.
No one can tell the future.
No one can tell you what will happen tomorrow, other than what they’ve planned to do.
What they don’t know is what the outcome of any of that will be.
There are always unintended consequences because everything is so complex.
That’s the thinking behind the Butterfly Effect.
The phrase comes from work by meteorologist Edward Lorenz in the 1960s–70s.
He showed that tiny differences in the initial numbers in his weather models produced wildly different forecasts, making long‑term weather prediction fundamentally limited.
The butterfly image is just a metaphor for those tiny initial differences.
That means that anyone who claims to ‘know’ what will happen in the future either doesn’t understand the data, or is trying to push an agenda.
It is always in your best interests to ask one or both of two questions.
1/ What if they’re wrong?
2/ How do they know that?
I find the first one is the most useful.
It challenges me to do some research.
Not just ask an AI tool, although that can be part of the research.
Look for opposing ideas, facts, and conclusions.
Many things are not what they seem to be on the surface, but you’ll have to dig and think.
Sorry about that.
Regards, Brent.
I once spent three years trying to build a tool to automate WordPress upgrades.
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
I once spent three years trying to build a tool to automate WordPress upgrades.
Different programming languages.
Different architectures.
Countless dead ends.
I changed languages because I hit a brick wall.
Something I couldn’t resolve with that language.
Always the same wall.
It was frustrating as hell, but I kept going.
Then WordPress added automatic updates.
Three years solving a problem that disappeared.
That sounds depressing.
It wasn’t.
It taught me one of the most valuable lessons I’ve ever learned.
Reality always gets a vote.
Business plans don’t exist in a vacuum.
Markets move.
Customers change.
Platforms evolve.
The question isn’t: “Can I build this?”
It’s: “Will this still matter if reality changes next week?”
I’ve noticed that the founders who adapt fastest usually beat the founders who plan the longest.
Not because they’re smarter.
Because they’re listening.
I’m collecting these observations into something I’m calling Field Notes.
More on that soon.
Regards, Brent.
“So then because thou art lukewarm, and neither cold nor hot, I will spue thee out of my mouth.” Revelation 3:16
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
“So then because thou art lukewarm, and neither cold nor hot, I will spue thee out of my mouth.” Revelation 3:16
No one votes for Mr Reasonable.
They vote for the person with firm ideas and a firm position.
Sometimes they vote against that person because of their firm ideas and position, but they still won’t vote for Mr Reasonable.
They’ll vote instead for another person with firm ideas and position that more closely match their ideas.
But we are taught from an early age to ‘get along’ with people.
We’re taught to not stand out.
But in that position, no one listens to you.
No one pays attention to your ideas.
You become a Mr Mediocre, and so does your life.
That’s when no one opens your emails, no one reads your blog posts, and you make no sales.
This is how you fix it, assuming you want to.
You start to take a bigger risk.
You put yourself out there with an opinion.
Not a manufactured opinion, a real one that you’ve thought about and can defend if necessary.
It does not have to be who you really are.
A manufactured persona works just as well.
Ask Kelly Felix (The Rich Jerk), Daniel Throssell (Australia’s Greatest Copywriter), or Donald Trump, no parentheses needed there.
The reaction to your persona is what you’re looking for.
Some will love you, some will hate you, but no one will ignore you.
Those that love you will subscribe and buy.
Some of those who hate will also subscribe, just to rant at you.
Use those emails to laugh at them and unsubscribe them.
The rest of your subscribers will lean in.
This is what you do to get the right subscribers and get them engaged from the first email.
https://link.ckv.to/qspb
This is the Quality Subscriber PlayBook I talked about recently.
It walks you through the 5 stages of email growth.
Step one, define your subscriber.
Step two, build one lead magnet that solves exactly one problem.
Step three, find three to five newsletters your ideal subscriber already reads and borrow the trust they spent years building.
Step four is the qualifying filter that confirms your positioning and drives off those who shouldn’t be there.
Step five, tag every subscriber by source and check the numbers after 30 days.
Click the link above, it’s an instant download PDF.
Regards, Brent.
Nicked this from Tony’s Skool group.
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Nicked this from Tony’s Skool group.
Wanted you to see the kind of thing that gets posted there.
In the early 1980s a load of Munich taxi drivers got their brakes fitted with a shiny new anti-lock braking system. The idea was simple. ABS stops your wheels locking up, so you stop faster and skid less.
Should have made the roads safer overnight.
It didn’t.
Researchers tracked the cabs for three years and found the ones with ABS had just as many accidents as the ones without.
Turned out the drivers with the fancy brakes drove faster, followed closer, and took corners harder. They felt safer, so they took more risks, right up until the extra risk cancelled out the extra safety. Same number of prangs, different reasons.
Economists call it risk compensation, or the Peltzman effect, after the bloke who first wrote it up.
Give people a safety net and they don’t get safer.
They just move the danger somewhere else and carry on as reckless as before.
I think about this a lot with the “I’ll just do a bit more research first” crowd.
Spent six months comparing email platforms. Read forty reviews before picking a site builder. Watched every free training on the market before writing a single word of copy.
All in the name of playing it safe.
Except it isn’t safe. It’s the ABS brakes all over again.
You’ve fitted yourself with a safety feature called “more research” and you’re using it to justify driving nowhere at all, for longer, while telling yourself you’re being “careful.”
The risk hasn’t gone down. It’s just changed.
Instead of the risk of launching something rubbish, you’ve now got the risk of launching nothing, forever, while your list goes cold and somebody else nicks the idea you’ve been “researching.”
Yep, I’ve done it too.
Here’s the thing. The AI space right now is full of people fitting themselves with ABS.
Endless prompt tweaking instead of publishing. “Just testing the tool a bit longer” instead of putting it in front of a paying customer who’ll tell you in one bloody sentence what’s wrong with it.
Every hour spent perfecting something nobody’s paid for yet is an hour you’ve decided is safer than the alternative.
It really isn’t. It’s just a different kind of risk.
None of this means you should chuck caution out the window and fire out shite content and products.
The taxi drivers with ABS weren’t crashing more because caution is bad. They were crashing the same because they’d swapped one risk for another and convinced themselves they hadn’t.
The trick isn’t recklessness. It’s noticing when your “sensible” behaviour has become a way of avoiding the thing that actually matters, which is getting something real in front of real people and letting them tell you the truth.
So next time you catch yourself doing “one more bit of prep” before you launch, sell, or send that email, ask what risk you’re actually managing.
Half the time you’ll find you’ve solved one problem just to invent another.
The real question is why we do that.
That’s Tony’s post.
The sharper stuff, though, came from the comments underneath it, the group’s full of experienced marketers. Post anything and you’ll get expert suggestions within the hour.
You’ll also find the occasional product launch at an extra discount, and all of Tony’s products at additional discounts.
Worth being in?
I’ve been a member for nearly 2 years and have had great feedback and help on my offers and products.
Grab your 7-day trial through this link:- https://go.wm-tips.com/skool
Regards, Brent.
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327
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858